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RivieraBob

State of the new car market

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Just heard on local radio that Geneva Motor Show already cancelled for 2021.

Next year's Geneva Motor Show has been cancelled. Organisers said that the majority of exhibitors who took part in a survey said they would "probably not participate" in a show next year. This year's event in February was cancelled at short notice because of the pandemic. The next show was scheduled for March 2021. 

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1 hour ago, RivieraBob said:

Just heard on local radio that Geneva Motor Show already cancelled for 2021.

Next year's Geneva Motor Show has been cancelled. Organisers said that the majority of exhibitors who took part in a survey said they would "probably not participate" in a show next year. This year's event in February was cancelled at short notice because of the pandemic. The next show was scheduled for March 2021. 

There is a recession coming (how big and long is a separate discussion and for another forum!), most industries will need to cut back and make saving and typically shows get hit in the motor trade.

Add that probably not many new models or refreshes will be ready and/or in production for next year, than another reason not to show.

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Looking forward to a steady drop in the 2/3 year old car market.   I can remember needing a cheap set of semi-respectable wheels in the summer of 2008 and bagged a spotless 23 month old 30K miles Saab from auction for the princely sum of £7.1K including buyers charges etc.  Sold two and a half years later at 100K miles for £4K.

Dont think things will be quite as good this time around but who knows . Might be able to put a super cheeky offer on my leased Tiguan when its due to go back next year.

Looking at prices on Autotrader then not much mass slippage in prices yet,  can only be a few months away before 15% disappears.   

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35 minutes ago, topcarrera said:

Looking at prices on Autotrader then not much mass slippage in prices yet,  can only be a few months away before 15% disappears.   

Same could be said of the housing market, prices at the same listed price as before lock down, but looking at those that do sell, prices are much lower than advertised and I'm beginning to see price reductions.

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28 minutes ago, Beaky said:

Same could be said of the housing market, prices at the same listed price as before lock down, but looking at those that do sell, prices are much lower than advertised and I'm beginning to see price reductions.

Loads of 'sold' boards gone up round here in the last 2 weeks.

I was originally planning to change my daily in the autumn, have now decided to leave it until next Spring given I'm not clocking up 1700 miles a month, and won't be for the forseeable.

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Keen to get thoughts on this, my SQ5 goes back this week after 2 years on a PCH, I would usually have ordered something else by now but held back during lockdown as I am not going anywhere.

Do I order something else on a 2 year PCH like I have done previously, buy something second hand for cash - liking a M3 manual F80, do nothing and wait to see what happens?  I still have the Cayman and 911 and wife's car so we can get around, but at some point will need a 4 door family car.  Dealer prices still seem strong as TC says, but stock is hanging around so will prices need to drop for them to move it on, or do they just hang on for the price they want?

On the housing market, lots of demand out of the relaxation of estate industry over the last month or so, both exchanging and completing deals that were in the pipeline from Pre Covid, but also front end activity (appraisals and new instructions), these are now washing through to offers and we are seeing prices holding up well (97% of asking price achieved).  Need to watch availability of mortgage products (lenders withdrawing 95% deals will hit some first time buyers).  The main question is, is this pent up demand that will wash through, or is this the new level of activity.  Its softening slightly but, from a false high and to more usual levels for this time of year.  Just need to see what happens when furlough ends of businesses need to bear the full cost of their employees, thats when things will get difficult - but its another conversation.

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I think there's a mix out there.

Some people have worked through the lockdown and have been financially unaffected. They actually have spare cash as they haven't been able to spend as usual on going out and travel etc so are chomping at the bit to spend their money on something to make them feel good. Holidays are questionable so consumer goods are a target for their money and low risk wrt CV.

Others have taken a financial hit and may struggle for some time to get back on track. They'll be watching each penny and not in the market for much of anything for a bit.

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I wonder whether the PCP bubble is about to burst given the number of people who may have found them unaffordable due to furlough etc and the lack of sales to support cars in general.  It will be interesting to watch this unravel over the next few months

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